Splintered Unity I: Zollverein

     Depending on the perspective of analysis, the size of the relevant parameters adjust appropriately. To study the social relations within a family, family hierarchy, culture, individual personalities need to be considered. For analysis of the trade relations between two cities, location, resources, production, population, trade routes, and political alliances are added to the small scale structure of personal interaction between leaders and diplomats and the history of the cities' relations. To once again expand investigations into the working of a nation, analysis must incorporate as many known variables as possible to accurately understand the processes of interaction. The largest stage in our world is the interaction between nation-states. For most of history, the only restrictions on a nation-state was the threat of destruction for its actions by more powerful states or by internal divisions. Not until the twentieth century did large-scale cooperation between countries seek to define the legality of international actions. That international union of nations came about as a method of limiting the destructive capabilities of Europe, specifically Germany.

     Despite its recent reputation as the incredible war machine of World War I, the harbinger of World War II, and the center of tensions for the Cold War, Germany has a long history of unity and bringing together interaction.

     After the strength had leaked out of the emperor of the Holy Roman Empire and the Reformation of the Catholic Church splintered German communities between Lutheran and Catholic religious doctrines, the German region of the Holy Roman Empire splintered into thousands of small domains. The next several centuries saw wars waged both to create more fractures and to reunite the disparate fringes.

     After the Napoleonic invasions in the early nineteenth century seeded nationalism, the Germanic states sought unification. Two empires held significant swathes of German land and people: the western, small Prussia and the large, diverse, historic Austria-Hungary. In the Congress of Vienna in 1815, Prussia desired a dualist organization of German states through which Austria and Prussia could share influence equally but the governmental organization favored Austria. The Prussians began incorporating industrial technology and railroad mobilization into military applications in the 1830s. These adaptations gave Prussia new political strength and aided in the establishment of a tariff-free trade union between member German states. With suggestions of Prussia’s potential to match Austria and unification in sight, many Germans enthusiastically supported Prussia and encouraged the consolidation of German states to form around the Prussian-German national identity.

     While Austria’s political and military might surpassed Prussia’s for the first half of the century, the German unification process, completed in 1871, represented the rise of Prussia at the expense of Austria’s German influence. German nationalism found a father in the purity of Prussia, not the mixed cultures of the Austrian Empire. The Zollverein, the trade union between Prussia and other German states, aided in this exclusion with the creation of Prussian-German trade routes that left Austria out of economic relations as the German industrial revolution took hold. To avoid disassembly by the other European powers for rapidly expanding, Prussia excluded Austria from the new Germany. A unified Germany with both Prussia and Austria would incite a European war to maintain the balance of power similar to the Crimean War.

     Bismarck’s political maneuvering prior to the Austrio-Prussian War aimed at unifying Germany. After the war, Prussia sought to maintain Germany as a single nation, but Austria’s inclusion in this nation would risk Germany’s internal stability with political and economic division and externally with the threat of an encompassing European war for power. 

     The rise of Prussia and unification of Germany required a weakened Austria. Political, economic, and military complications provided the destabilizing forces that Prussia used eliminated Austria’s influence.

     Political revolution in 1848 accompanied by and prompting the resignation of Metternich, who had orchestrated the Congress of Vienna, saw the beginning of Austria’s decline. The revolutions discredited the Austrian-influenced Germanic Confederation’s ability to govern the Germanic states, but Prussia’s maintenance of power during 1848 led to a favorable shift in German confederate government. The 1850 remodeling of the German constitution placed German unification hopes in Prussia and Austria, not on a German federation of balanced powers.

     The economic depression of the 1850s stirred up political agitation that encouraged German unification through confederate diets. Military force alone could not effect German unity; national federations and councils attempted unification with religion, social reform, and common law. With the example of Italian unification in 1859, several German states intensified their calls for a united Germany. Despite the increasing pro-Prussian sentiments, Austria used old German allies to form the Confederate Diet amidst the tension over the Electorate of Hesse-Kassel in the later 1850s. The residing president of the diet, an Austrian, countered the increasing economic power of the Prussians in the middle Germanic states. However this dualist arrangement threatened war, and the two dominant powers reworked the diet as “coequals.”

     The Crimean War further escalated tensions. Prussia remained uncommitted during the war which allowed it to continue advancing its military technologies, learn from the techniques of other major powers, and avoid any negligible entanglements that war would bring. The Crimean War gave Prussia a final boost in its modernization that allowed it to draw militarily equal with the other major European powers. By the 1860s, European powers realized that “the most permanent result of the Crimean War was the disruption of the Concert of Europe. Forty years of peace were now followed by four [Prussian] wars that revolutionized the power structure of the Continent.” Austria did not consider Prussia a reckonable power in 1854 at the beginning of the Crimean War because Prussia had not yet placed herself into a strong position to gain influence in Europe and upset the balance of power. With the wars end, Austria shifted focused to limiting Prussian political influence within the German states. Austria also began testing Prussia’s new strength and resolve as early as 1857 with the construction of defensive forts in Holstein and some of their other major Germanic state allies.

     As the tension between the two great German powers mounted, independent German states realized that the balance between Austria and Prussia was the only force granting sovereignty to lesser governments. One of the two Greater Powers would have to succumb in order to unite Germany. The controlling force of this balance, the Frankfurt Diet, acted slowly, and with support from Prussian propaganda, most voters saw the diet as retrogressive. Instead, the populace concluded that new social structure and relations could not be accommodated into the outdated views of independent German states. The confederation parliaments of Germany slowed unification because of split alliances between Prussian and Austrian spheres of influence.

     Attempting to overcome the limitations of confederate political control, Prussia sought economic unification to aid in its political influence throughout Germany. Austrian inclusion in this economic state would eliminate its unifying capabilities because the two great powers would remain equals and prolong the stalemate.

     While Prussia sought material economic success through commercial liberalism, Austria attempted to reunite Germany with cultural customs. Bismarck, chancellor, did not trust Austria. In 1862 he said, “I cannot keep myself from suspicion. I am convinced that [Austria] is proceeding in no straightforward fashion towards us. She will use us as she needs, without giving anything in return, and then cast us aside.” Despite the previous irresolution of the dualist approach, the middle German states did not desire sole control by either power since independent sovereignty would dethrone families in power.

    

      The Zollverein, the German Customs Union, formed in pre-war Germany and included most German territory outside Austria. Economic influence became Prussia’s strength against Austria in the German parliaments. Its strength grew continuously. The Congress of German Economics, begun by Prussia in Berlin in 1858, played a key role in the Zollverein’s effectiveness. It economically united Germany and eased the transition to political unity. By ostracizing Austrian economic involvement by refusing to allow its participation in the Zollverein, Prussia dominated German trade. Because of Austria’s powerful influence on the European political world, Prussia used the Zollverein to undercut Austrian influence in Germany. Austria feared that the Zollverein would create a de facto Prussian state through economic ties. That fear was realized.

     In 1862 Austria’s response to the Zollverein in the German states nearest the Austrian border was complete compensation for any trade loss of quitting the economic pact with Prussia. Some sentiments in the southern states, however, favored Prussia. “Prussophiles” combined German nationalism with policies of unrestricted trade.

     The financial freedom espoused by the Zollverein eliminated all trade restrictions and created an economic boom in Prussia by the end of the 1850s. German states aligned with Prussia agreed to the tariff-free Zollverein for economic gain while being drawn into Prussian influence and economic ties. As a newspaper editor mentioned, “Berlin proved adept at combining friendly appeals to enlightened self-interest with arm-twisting and naked blackmail. Small adjacent states that refused to enter the Prussian-Hessian union were subjected to hard-hitting counter measures . . . in which new transport routes were used to suck the flow of trade away from target territories.” 

     The Zollverein gave Prussia the lead on German unification at the cost of Austria’s entire economy.

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Agatha Tyche

Rise and Fall of Timbuktu

     Before American parents threatened to send disobedient children to Siberia, the farthest reaches of the European man's geographical mind rested at the southern end of the largest desert of the world. Timbuktu, a land of trade, education, and wealth captured the fascination of the West centuries before the colonization of Africa. Situated at the northernmost curve of the Niger River, Timbuktu provided a trade point for trans-Saharan caravans with access into central Africa and the western African coast.
     Established as a city by Muslim traders in the 1200s, Timbuktu grew notoriously prosperous with trade in ivory, slaves, salt, and, famously, gold. This city's importance made it prominent in several consecutive empires until gradual diminishment of the political power and wealth of North Africa and large-scale trade disruption after the Battle of Tondibi in 1591 ended the supreme importance of Timbuktu as a central trade hub south of the Sahara.

     Location allowed the city to become a prominent trader during the Muslim dominance of Africa with most Saharan trade routes connecting Timbuktu to the other major cities of North Africa. Salt miners in the desert brought their wares to the city to ship south along the river while gold from the hills to the east gave Timbuktu an unrepeatable monopoly on gold production. Other typical trade items of Africa like ivory and slaves flushed out the economy of a city whose population is estimated at 100,000 while Europeans were dying of plague.
     At the peak of its wealth, Emperor Mansa Musa I went on a pilgrimage to Mecca in 1324. While his travels and lavish, gold-fueled gifts caught the attention of the rest of the world, that same pilgrimage crippled the wealth of the empire that it never fully recovered. Such vast quantities of gold were gifted and spent to feed the 60,000 man caravan that Egyptian and Arabian gold prices were inflated for a decade. At the time of the pilgrimage two-thirds of global gold production was controlled by the Malian Empire, but those techniques for gold extraction in thick clay and mud have not changed in a thousand years. Malian villages mine gold in the same method as their ancestors which does not allow for Mali to be a significant producer on the global market.
     Mansa Musa's leadership stabilized the empire both economically and militarily during his life. So successful was the empire at securing the safety of trade routes that even twelve years after Musa's death, crime remained minimal. This wealth and security allowed travelers, merchants, ambassadors, and scholars to reach Timbuktu safely and spread stories of it abroad.
     Often overlooked in the legacy of the city was the knowledge center that it maintained. Trade record keeping created a learned atmosphere that led to the establishment of a university and made Timbuktu a leader in the African and Muslim worlds for education. Traders brought books to the city and sold knowledge for prices higher than any other marketplace goods because of the demand for books and competition between scholars.
     The city could not retain its reputation as the global monopolizer in gold and as trans-Saharan trade weakened from Portugese and Spanish trans-African shipping, Timbuktu's dynasty began to fade. African trade continued to flow from the desert to the Niger River and from the gold mines to the North, but with civil wars and conquest, the disruption of the local trade created market hubs in distant cities. The dominance of Timbuktu was over, but its legend had only begun.
     In more recent times after the French colonization of Africa and the post-colonization establishment of the nation of Mali, Timbuktu became a UNESCO World Heritage site in 1988. When Islamic extremist militants invaded the city in 2012 and 2013, the cultural and historical wealth of the city was threatened and much of it was destroyed. In a remarkable, heroic effort to preserve the ancient Islamic writings, librarians and ledgers smuggled over 28,000 records and hundreds of thousands of pages out of library stores while the city was under Islamic-rebel control. The triumph of these efforts were more fully realized when the retreating rebels burned the library before fleeing the city as French-Mali joint forces retook the city.
     Timbuktu has been many things to many men. The capitol of one of the richest men to ever live, the trade hub for millions of Africans for centuries, a city of mystery, a culture of music, and the core of a legacy that spans the continents and centuries to capture the awe and imagination of every culture it contacts.

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Agatha Tyche

Nutrition

     In a land of wealth and plenty that dominates many aspects of the globe, the United States' three-hundred million citizens spend less of their annual income on food than ever before. Because of the incredible monetary and caloric wealth, the average adult American gains seven pounds during the holiday period in December. This land of plenty has seen its population increase in weight throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries as have many European countries.
     At the end of the seventeen hundreds, much of the world was the same height at just under 150cm (5 ft). With the agricultural revolution in Europe and America that mechanized food production, the populations gained access to a rich, steady food source. Human height is controlled by genetics but growth only comes from nutrition. Nutrition for growth is most important during childhood, and starving children will not grow as tall as ones that are well fed.
     The height of people worldwide has increased significantly in the last 150 years. As countries develop and gain access to more reliable food supplies, nutrition, and medical care, those populations grow in number and size.
     By World War I, the average American doughboy was 167cm (5ft 6in) compared to American men now at 180cm (5ft 11in). Most Western European and industrialized nations have similar proportions. World War I saw the industrial might of the world directly compete against itself, and much of the socioeconomic and nutritional gains of the previous century went unnoticed between men of similar size.
     The Eight Nation Alliance that besieged China during the Boxer Rebellion in 1900 demonstrates the height differences between wealthy  and developing nations. Because the forces involved were composed of nations around the world, a direct comparison of the size of citizens and subjects of different nations can be made.

Left to right: Britain, United States, Australia, India, Germany, France, Russia, Italy, Japan.

     Britain and America had a strong industrial-agricultural complexes that nourished growing populations better than any other in the world. Germany and France were rapidly industrializing and quickly caught up to the sizes of the wealthier nations. Russia and Italy, two of the poorer European nations at the time, are on the smaller side because of the less diversified agricultural sector while Japan's rocky soil restricted large, rich diets until trade developed to significantly increase food access to its people.

     Industrialized nations' tourists to poorer regions of the world today still notice the smaller height of poor nations, but as globalization fuels the world's economy, agricultural production increases, and the world's population stabilizes, the height of men throughout the world will level off: For all men are created equal in every culture, race, sect, and nation.

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Agatha Tyche

Buy-archy: Dynasties in American Politics

     As the oldest constitutionally-based republic in the world, has influenced the dynamic political adjustments to Europe in the last two-hundred years, and affected the enormous support and variety of democratic governments around the world, the United States of America perches grandly atop the assortment people's-consent governments, yet with voter participation barely enticing a third of the population to vote, America's esteemed republic seems to have grown decrepit with age.
     With the ratification of the Constitution in 1788 by all thirteen states, America began a great democratic experiment. The novelty of this approach drew the wonder and scorn of America's European trade partners and induced Alexis de Tocqueville of France to write Democracy in America (1835 and 1840) in which he analyzed the effectiveness of this type of political system. The Founding Fathers of America, five of whom became presidents under the Constitution, were a group of influential elites that largely sacrificed their own interests to establish a functional nation independent of Great Britain's imperial hand.
     Of the 56 signers of the Declaration of Independence, 39 signers of the Constitution, and the many who served on the Continental Congress, a legacy was born of rugged, frontier-minded people led by the New World's aristocratic, land-owning elite. An elite group that was versed both in European philosophy and exposed to the natural rigors of the uncivilized colonies. That arrangement fixed the foundation for the dreams of the millions who have called America their home over the last four-hundred years. Since the establishment of Jamestown and other British settlements, the United States as colonies and as states has placed wealthy families in governance over the working classes -  with some several exceptions of extraordinary men and circumstances. Aside from those exceptions, the American political and economic systems, often married and self-supporting, have been a reproducible relay of lineages taking residence in the seats of power. Not in ways that have outraged the voter public at large, instead encouraging furthering the democratization powers under Theodore Roosevelt, Howard Taft, and Woodrow Wilson's ideologically Progressive presidential terms.
     While the lineages of political power extend to all levels and branches of the American political system, the most visible and memorable powerhouse is the head of the Federal Executive branch, the President of the United States. The first recognized dynasty of American presidents was the Adams family. John Adams, one of the most predominant and vocal Founding Fathers, held strong ideas and the strength of character to withstand opposition. As the first vice president and second president, Adams began the precedent of peacefully switching hands of power from one man to another after the electoral process. Four presidents later, his son, John Quincy Adams, became the sixth president and the second in the Adam's dynastic claims to the presidential seat.
     A less notable and less influential dynasty over the course of America's destiny is the Harrison dynasty of the early to late nineteenth century. William Henry Harrison became of the ninth president, the last born a British-subject, and the first to die in office. He rose to power from his fame as a military officer and left a legacy in the War of 1812 that solidified America's self-identity. William's grandson, Benjamin Harrison, became the twenty-third president. While the political dynasty ended there, Benjamin's son Russell had a military career in the Spanish-American war that extended the recognized portion of the family's legacy through the nineteenth century.
     The Dutch, New York-based Roosevelts have made a permanent impact on their family, the Western Hemisphere, Europe, and the world. Succeeding the assassinated William McKinley in 1901 to become the twenty-sixth president, Theodore Roosevelt captured the support of the American public. Theodore Roosevelt broke up large corporations with trust-busting laws, invigorated the standards of the American army, expanded America's military and economic strength throughout the Western Hemisphere, initialized government reforms, established the legal preservation of many national parks that are still visited by millions today, and has endured lasting admiration for his courage, manliness, foolhardiness, and indomitable spirit. In modern American popular culture, Theodore Roosevelt matches the legendary tall tales of the Founding Fathers with feats of his ferocity and bravado from assassination attempts, distinguished military career, and dozens of legal precedents from re-invigorating the working class to federal government reforms. Despite these triumphs that set up America to claim the twentieth century as her own, Theodore's cousin, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, extended the immense influence and power of Theodore to take hold of the reigns of the world. The thirty-second president took his place as the United States endured the Great Depression. While his reforms are still denounced by America's political right, FDR led America through some of its most trying challenges since the Civil War. The Great Depression and a majority of World War II directed FDR's leadership against the antagonists of the American population. Franking's dying on the brink of America's victories in both European and Pacific theaters, the Roosevelt family's incredibly immense legacy on the world had only begun. The institutions established by both men still affect any residents of the United States and began the current ties of America's political alliances with European and Asian-Pacific powers.
     As the "land of the free" and home of the brave," America declares that all who take up the work can achieve their earthly goals, but for the dynastic families of American politics, hard work, money, a familiar name, and legal support extend normal labor into the most prominent chair of the American system of governance. Many families control local elections whether in small towns or giant cities like New York. Other families become fixtures of the political scene in Washington's federal government as exhibited by the success of the Kennedy family. The legacy of America's political families is as recognizable as the aristocratic and monarchical dynasties of Europe, yet seemingly inexplicably, the American dynasties gain their power not only through wealth and connections but through the support of the ballot box.
     As noted at the beginning, the modern system of democratic-republic representation in America is weak, with voter turnout low and inconsistent. Despite the dismal participation, contenders for the coveted seats of power are never in short supply, yet since 1981 with only the exception of the current occupier Barak Obama, a member of the Bush or Clinton family has been in one of the two most powerful positions in America.

     With the 2010 Supreme Court ruling on Citizens United concluding that corporations are people, unlimited funds are available to candidates for political campaigns. As the stagnation of middle-class American wages continues, the overall contribution strength of the American whole is less able to out-pay the corporations who are able to spend millions on lobbyists and billions during campaign season. Families striving to pay the bills and, perhaps, save for retirement while putting any child through any level of education find it difficult to keep track of the numerous political stances of the various candidates, never mind financially contributing on a negatively balanced budget. As the rich get rich and the American middle class wanes, laws favoring the rich disproportionately affect hundreds of millions of individuals.
     Americans recognize these problems, yet change does not come. Perhaps this is due to 90% re-election of state representatives to Congress despite 70+% disapproval of recent Congress performance. The general population is unable to become involved or contribute to the political system because of the slow financial stripping of their means. Despite an increasing number of Americans working more than fifty hours, and being forced to find non-full time positions to make ends meet, the average family income is stagnant. This is the core economic quandary of modern America. Adjusted for inflation, an average middle class family in 1970 would make nearly $95,000 in 2015 which contrasts the real national average of about $52,000. Even the richest state, Maryland, only has an average family income of $69,000, twenty-five thousand dollars below 1970 levels.
     The connection between political dynasties and American economic woes is correlated in recent decades by the repetitious re-election of Bush and Clinton candidates into the White House. One of the easiest ways to gain support or disdain from a large number of people instantly is to have a recognizable name. In a sea of people who have unheard of names with no known political credit to them, familiarity triumphs whether or not its authenticity and ideas are more widely supported. Because of the instantaneous recognition "Bush" and "Clinton" have on the American population, individuals with the "brand" are instantly more successful despite being little different from or potentially worse than the competition.
     The next year and a half will captivate the American media on the domestic and foreign problems of the country. The famous people who promise to fix those problems will likely fair better in the approval ratings. History has revealed the strengths and weaknesses of family dynasties. Part of their success is from their simplicity and consistency. Dynasties in democratic societies, notably America, have long been successful and even good for the overall trajectory of a nation's people, but as the money to fund the positions of power is concentrated into fewer hands, are the choices between two dynasties the best options or is it time to clear the board and reset some of the pieces?
     If corporations are people and money talks, the loudest voices will not be the American people.


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Agatha Tyche

Devotion to Dust

     History is an odd study. It provides access to the past but only through filters and peep holes. History recounts the actions and effects of the dead which can be used a a guide to our decisions today though the outcomes are never certain. For many historians the study of past people and events is simply a passion that arouses curiosity and enthusiasm that cannot be directed anywhere except into books, into digs, and towards fellow enthusiasts. For many cultures, history is implicit in ordinary life from the buildings walked by to the social customs used to interact with family and foreigners. These places like Jerusalem, Rome, and Timbuktu possess a spirit that extends beyond time and memory and which holds firmly onto its residents for generations. The colonies of the Americas and South Pacific, notably the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand thoroughly destroyed and ignored native inhabitants of previously settled areas while simultaneously distancing colonial culture from the motherland. Specifically in the United States, popular culture believes history starts at the Revolutionary War in 1776 because nothing before that is worth remembering. That mindset is more dangerous than being in awe of the past because it places the present in full view outside of any context. Why do many nations see Americans as self-centered? Because to American citizens, the United States is the only nation that has ever mattered in history, and its greatness has never been eclipsed.
     History provides context by recognizing the triumphs and chastising the mistakes of the past while attempting to hold the present accountable and provide guidance to the future. Herodotus is credited as the Father of History since he is the first person acknowledged for recording historic events from first hand accounts in order to preserve knowledge. His work The History reveals insights into ancient Greece, Persia, and Egypt from monuments to travel routes to popular opinions. Although Herodotus was the first, he included bias and hear-say and did not document sources. He collected and compiled information to be kept safe for the future but did not include analysis or context. For centuries after Herodotus, records of events were kept throughout the Hellenistic world and collected, famously, in the library at Alexandria. The Romans continued the tradition of recording keeping, but the enthusiasm for analyzing records loss a great deal of its importance as the empire waned. The medieval period of Europe saw the near extinction of literacy and forced preservation to become the primary function of the learned.
     Napoleon Bonaparte's education reforms brought the modern methodology of a historian into play. On his conquests, he had geologists, botanists, zoologists, and a record keeper travel with his army to survey the land, biology, and events for future compilation. His forethought expanded the purpose of history from classical mythology and warfare to recording the present, analyzing the past, and changing a pastime into an academic pursuit.
     The current academic basis for historic inquiries varies for as many people as study history. Undeniably, studying history sates the unquenchable curiosity of mankind. History records the present for the future while revealing the past to the present lest the greatness of man's achievements are forgotten. While war, generals, and empires garner much attention, recent trends in the last few decades have focused on minorities, women, and civil rights as current social appetites dictate a new perspective. The study of history also reminds humanity of its failures and highlights pitfalls of the past. This can be a caution to world leaders and generals as well as a predictor for future imperial blunders and economic disasters.

     Perspective changes connotation. The components that dictate the changes of time can be broken down into three pivotal, interconnected cogs that drive the future onward. The smallest wheel spins rapidly and controls social movements and cultural adjustments to economic capabilities, wars, and civil relations. The medium wheel dictates political policies and laws that can control or react to social shifts. Though more powerful than the instant reaction of the masses, the political wheel spins more slowly. The third wheel moves languidly, nearly unnoticeably, and alters the climate and geography of a region which affects access to resources that influence political momentum, economic capabilities, military needs, and social attitudes.
     The small wheel that does all the spinning is the easiest for people to recognize and study, but it is controlled by larger, less obvious changes. Those larger forces are acknowledged but almost ignored. The climate of the ancient Nile allowed Egypt to flourish because of a consistent, easy water supply while the vast forests and Atlantic Coastline of Europe set the stage for the imperial expansion of the oceans similar to China's resource dominance in Asia.
     Part of the study of history is to answer questions; part of it is to find answers. History is a clock, and no matter which hand you focus on - time keeps ticking.


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Agatha Tyche

Population Dynamics: Growth

     A debate at the forefront of the mind when looking over UN reports of disease, water usage, pollution, or news on the development of industrializing countries is the exponential increase in the human population which has caused concern in recent years due to the stress on natural resources and the toll that modern adaptations take both on the planet and on human interactions. The Industrial Revolution and its offspring are responsible for the enormous, exponential increase of Homo sapien sapien in the last two-hundred twenty-five years. As debated as the enlargement of humanity is, the format denouncing these changes has gone unchanged since the population explosion began..

     Thomas Malthus's 1798 essay, "An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it affects the Future Improvement of Society with remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and Other Writers," neatly summarizes the biological limitations of earth for the needs of an undefined number of people. Since the food supply tends to increase more slowly than human reproduction, it is left to the whims of nature on how to dispose of the excess individuals. This is achieved through war, famine, and disease. What Malthus did not predict was the great revolutions the food industry would undergo from 1798 to the modern day. Napoleon's France began the canning industry that allowed foods to be shipped incredible distances and stored for several months which allowed burgeoning populations to remain active through winter. Farming equipment and improved yields, especially in the grain baskets of Germany and America, provided the means to maintain the growth of Europe's populations.
     The last large-scale famine in Western countries was 1816, the Year Without a Summer. Because of spectacular innovations, trade, and preservation technology, exponential growth in Europe then the world has seen the human population double again and again within a single lifetime. As human numbers have increased, the means and minds to continue the increase in food supplies has expanded too.

 "Since you ask me what I wish, gentlemen, that is my answer. I don't make merry myself at Christmas ans I can't afford to make idle people merry. I help to support the establishments I have mentioned: they cost enough: and those who are badly off must go there."
"Many can't go there; an many would rather die."
"If they would rather die," Said Scrooge, "they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population."
- Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol, 1843.

     Despite the worries of a continually enlarging population, growth trends have slowed from a global maximum of about a 20% increase in the 1960s to about five percent in the 2010s. The Green Revolution in Asia in the 1960s and 70s saved millions of lives and enabled several countries to feed their people without imports, notably China and India.
     As humans reproduce, our population continues to grow as it has for the past twenty decades. As that rate slows, Malthus could be proven correct as resources like oil and water strain trade relations and power structures. Resource management is a significant component of the fear mongering that has gone on since the beginning of the nineteenth century. Malthus predicted that Europe would descend into ravenous hordes, but the 1800s saw Europe dominate the world in every imaginable way - including population growth.
     It is not wrong to predict the problems of the future, but it is unhelpful to predict those problems and offer only despair and hopelessness as solutions. Charles Dickens exhibited the evidence of Britain's health and success in the 1843 short story "A Christmas Carol" where the streets of London have fresh fruits and edible delicacies available at modest prices even in the throes of winter. Even as Malthus's followers bemoaned the dismal possibilities of the future, Britain outproduced its needs. Therefore, let us look toward the years ahead with a eye for innovation and a heart full of hope instead of the useless dismality of the doomsday Malthusians.


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Agatha Tyche

Incomprehensible Loss

     This will be an uncharacteristically personal post. The original topic changed multiple times and delayed this entry for several weeks. Recent contact with one of my history mentors elicited a strong, angry, depressed response. The final motivation that initiated the following sentiments was finalized by the proximity of ISIS to Palmyra, Syria and the vast, famed ruins south of that city. Palmyra is a UNESCO World Heritage Site that has been a major city since before Roman occupation in the first century. With the threat to this beautifully preserved city, the world hopelessly holds its breath with ISIS's destructive intent clearly exhibited through Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Even after deliberate destruction, the ruined ruins will be an impressive site and will continue to be a travel destination in the years to come.
     In short, history is fragile. Geological history is hard to unravel because of the sheer scope of time and size. Biological history requires careful genealogical histories of migration and breeding which can be confirmed through genotype mapping. Social history is the most sensitive and delicate to preserve and interpret. People's lives are powerful, but decipherable impacts can be nearly invisible given time and change.

     Egypt is famous because of the volume of historic artifacts that have remained four thousand years after the heights of power. The pyramids were the tallest man-made structures in the world for longer than people have lived in most cities. The Egyptians left a mark on the people they conquered and on the people that conquered them because of the total domination of the Nile Valley.
     Other cultures were able to build immense stone structures that have endured for millenia. The Roman Colosseum, the Great Wall of China, and the Mayan city Teotihuacan all testify to the strength of people at different times. Historians see these remains as historical landmarks and seek out their meaning, purpose, and history.
     The most selfish, antagonist people to live are not those that study and preserve materials of the past but those that intentionally destroy what can never be repaired, recovered, or rebuilt. ISIS destroys ancient artifacts because they are "idolatrous" to Islam's Allah. One of the biggest reasons to illegally keep world heritage artifacts in climate-controlled, guarded museum cases in Europe is because the countries those artifacts came from are the those with the most severe political turmoil and social unrest. Egypt is still experiencing political shifts years after the beginning of the Arab Spring. Greece's financial situation recently forced the withdraw of a decades-long attempt to reclaim the Elgin Marbles from the British Museum of Nature History. The Mediterranean region of the Middle East has suffered constant warfare, terrorism, and religious tension for the past seventy years with an unpredictable schedule of conflict and bombings. Regardless of the legality of European collections of ancient artifacts, they are carefully preserved and studied to reveal the past to the future.

"Not to know what happened before we were born is to remain perpetually a child. For what is the worth of human life if it is not woven into the life of our ancestors by the records of history." -Cicero

     History is a resource that cannot be manufactured. If fortunate, it can be restored, but through the renewal process, it loses part of its significance. The Middle East is a superlative in several categories from oil production to historic ruins to manufactured political boundaries by European empires. Importantly, the extreme, fringe Islamic views that have  gained a small minority of support because of its blame-centered, antagonistic beliefs have dramatically disturbed millions of peoples, billions of dollars, natural resources, trade routes, and the incomprehensible demolition of "blasphemous and idolatrous" antiquities.
     ISIS seeks to restore the greatness of past Islamic Caliphates that dominated the Near East, Northern Africa, and parts of Europe for centuries. Their zeal and enthusiasm should be commended as well as their demonstrated effectiveness. They should, however, seek to follow more of their ancestors' footsteps who respected their conquered people's lives and religions as well as the enormous significant context of the region while remaining true to their Islamic heritage.
     Perhaps ISIS will one day be contained or destroyed. Perhaps they will successfully establish a long-term Islamic government that extends beyond the modern boundaries of Middle Eastern nations. Regardless of their future, for the sake of mankind, may they stop the pointless obliteration that thousands of people have worked millenia to avoid.

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Agatha Tyche